R. Ghasemi Nejad; R. A. Abbaspour; M. Mojarab
Abstract
Seismic source zones have an important role in hazard assessment in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. These zones often determined according to judgments by experts are, in most cases, non-uniform across a specific region and typically controversial. Thus, most of the uncertainty in probabilistic ...
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Seismic source zones have an important role in hazard assessment in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. These zones often determined according to judgments by experts are, in most cases, non-uniform across a specific region and typically controversial. Thus, most of the uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can be related to the delineation of seismic sources. Another problem of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is the way earthquakes are associated with the faults. Even though it is well-known that earthquakes happen on faults, but most of them are still unknown, this constrains the realization and assessment of seismic risks by experts. This paper attempts to determine seismic sources and associate events to faults using a fuzzy particle swarm optimization clustering algorithm. The algorithm works based on the minimization of two objective functions: distance from events to fault, and distance from events to their center of density (i.e. cluster center). The algorithm is applied on seismic data acquired from northwest of Iran, and its performance is evaluated based on the events assigned to the faults by previous researchers. Comparing associated earthquakes to faults by the algorithm in northwest of Iran with known and documented earthquakes, reveals that, 79.2% of the events are correctly induced by faults. Final result shows that, this methodology will help seismological engineers take a step forward in hazard analysis by determining seismic sources and assigning earthquakes to different active faults.
M Mojarab; H Memarian; M Zare; V Kossobokov
Abstract
The earthquake of 23 October 2011, near the Turkish city of Van, had 600 victims and caused great damages in Van, Argis, Moradiyeh and Caldiran. Review of 20th century and historical earthquakes in eastern Anatolian plate and west of Iranian plateau confirmed the activity of this area with the notable ...
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The earthquake of 23 October 2011, near the Turkish city of Van, had 600 victims and caused great damages in Van, Argis, Moradiyeh and Caldiran. Review of 20th century and historical earthquakes in eastern Anatolian plate and west of Iranian plateau confirmed the activity of this area with the notable earthquake of 24 November 1976 in Caldiran. The main objective of this paper is evaluation of predictability of earthquakes in this region. Presently, the two main approaches for predicting extreme events are precursory and pattern recognition algorithms. For this study, we applied M8 algorithm that is based on pattern recognition. In this respect,a 49 point network were designed around the epicenter of Van earthquake and M8 algorithm applied to this network. The end result was four zones with some overlaps that were proposed as CTIP (current time of increase probability). This study could predict the Van earthquake with 1/1/2008 to 30/12/2012 time window, 281 km local radius and magnitude of more than 7. In addition, forward prediction in this area shows there is no alarm for magnitude 7+ in next 5 years. This study showed the strength of M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes in the Middle East. It can be concluded that using algorithms based on pattern recognition can play an important role for mitigation of damages in seismic events.
